Meanwhile, to the North, in that other democracy, the Prime Minister has resigned, effective soon. Not a good time, because Canada is at war — a Trade War started by the United States.
The tariffs of Donald Trump will be like air strikes on Canada’s economy. But Justin Trudeau will not lead the battle. He has lost the confidence of his Liberal party and the weak support of the New Democrats. And everyone was done with him anyway.
So 2025 may see a succession of three Prime Ministers: Trudeau, then another Liberal, and then probably Pierre Poilievre, the leader of the Conservatives (“Tories”). The second one will be whomever the Liberals choose as their next Leader, who will be expected to call an election, which the Conservatives expect to win handily. The Liberals can only blame themselves.
This election will not be like in the States, a seismic cataclysm of the Empire, with Nero becoming Caesar. Poilievre is a populist and a libertarian, but his election will not be a threat to democracy. Evangelicals will vote Tory, but this will not be a victory of Christian Nationalism. Canada is as secular as most Western democracies, and like most of them, it does not need a hard “wall of separation” between church and state, because Canadians, unlike Americans, do not “believe” in Canada. Canadian patriotism is not faith-based.
It’s only Liberal politicians who say they “believe in Canada.” Trudeau has been championing Canada as the virtuous democracy in North America, the paradigm of Diversity-Equity-and-Inclusion. But being “not-the-United-States” only goes so far, and doesn’t help with housing, health care, and the cost of living. While much of this devolves to the provinces, globalization still requires the federal government to take some leadership, and it hasn’t. When Trudeau’s enthusiastic welcome of refugees and immigrants was poorly executed precisely in housing and healthcare, his government came off as both hypocritical and inept.
Tories believe not in Canada but in Canadians. For them, that means less regulation, smaller government, and stronger borders. That’s polling well. The riding (electoral district) in which I pay my taxes is strongly Conservative (I am not). But Canadians are generally less ideological than Americans in politics, more practical and reasonable. Even Conservatives take for granted the civilized benefits that Americans consider socialist — like “free” health care and regulating gun ownership. Poilievre even favors maintaining abortion rights for women.
Yet Canada is not exempt from the Culture War that gave Trump the White House. And that feeds the disdain for Trudeau. I know some Canadian Christians who are much taken with Jordan Peterson, the retired Toronto professor who spoke out against political correctness and is seen as the Hercules against woke-ness. The Tories will exploit this, but they are not out to destroy Canadian institutions. You will not see them wanting to brutalize undocumented immigrants.
Poilievre is not particularly appealing but he’s got a lock on the Conservatives. He works the inside, like his mentor Stephen Harper, the last Tory Prime Minister. Like Harper he lacks charisma. Changing his looks with contact lenses didn’t help. He’s only ever been a politician and that’s his worldview, lacking in imagination and sympathy. Harper was a candid evangelical but Poilievre lacks even that source of vision.
Ironically, as a native Albertan of Fransaskois heritage, with a French name and Francophone fluency, it is Poilievre who personifies the grand vision of Trudeau’s father, Pierre, that Canada should be fully bilingual nationwide. But a new grand vision of Canada is not what the Tories think that Canadians want right now, at least not from the Prime Minister’s office. The two most effective recent Prime Ministers, Brian Mulroney and Jean Chrétien, offered no vision beyond strong government. Of course a lack of vision also means a lack of inspiration and creativity.
Canada has always been a coalition and a working compromise. It makes room for minority political parties. Canada has never forged its union in blood and battle (though it hasn’t lacked for uprisings and rebellions). History and geography have baked diversity and inclusion into its identity. The attitude is one of “We know best how to live our own lives here on our challenging and beloved landscapes in Newfoundland, Québec, Saskatchewan, and B.C., so we live and let live, and would Ottawa please just keep the peace and deliver us our decent social services.”
I think most Christians in Canada are okay with that. The government offers enough but not too much. The churches will not be torn apart by this next election, and pastors will not be threatened or need to resign. No one will vote Tory in the belief that God has chosen Pierre Poilievre. And the Tories will have their turn at governing until they get too self-serving and corrupt, and eventually democracy will do what it does best, and turn them out. And the doom of the planet will continue to be unaddressed.
5 Responses
Thanks for these insights
Having lived a few years in Canada and maintained friendships with several Canadians, I tend to agree with Daniel. Canada has a different, less provocative feel to it. Canada is the US minus the 1776 rebellion against all things British, minus the 2nd amendment and violence, minus that spirit of arrogant exceptionalism, and minus the odd marriage of church and state that produces a “Christian” nation “favored” by God ( if it behaves).
Recently though, another trend seems to have advanced in both countries and around the world. Entitlement, always a real force, has spilled over the dam of democracy. Being rich and powerful inevitably allows some to create their own narratives and to actually enforce them. As Tom described here yesterday, we can even create a God minus the Jesus. Consequently, democracy, “we the people,” has come to be a threat to individualism and entitlement. Canadians, like Americans and several others, vote in alignment with their investments, what their government can do for them personally. This short-sighted solution will not lead to the “liberty” it claims. History will call us fools.
For people enamored with our own perception of dominance, we are often woefully ignorant of our neighbors and the rest of the world. This helped. Thanks.
I remember back in 2015 on the verge of his election win, a Canadian commentator on NPR stated “The issue with Justin Trudeau is that he has the looks of his mother and the brains of his … mother.” On December 19, 2024, geopolitical analyst Peter Zeihan referred to Prime Minister Trudeau as “an empty suit that sometimes moves his chin” Fortunately he had the smartest woman in Canada, Chrystia Freeland, as Deputy PM. She engineered all of Canada’s macro economic and foreign policy successes over the last decade. But she recently resigned, which triggered the inevitable demise of Mr Trudeau. I believe Pierre Poilievre will be a welcome change of pace for Canadians and their allies, I look for Canada to have a larger footprint and positive impact on the world stage in the years to come.
What I would not give to make politics normal again down south.